Evaluating the quality of Ohio State football’s recruiting classes in the Ryan Day era: Buckeye Talk podcast (2024)

COLUMBUS, Ohio -- Ohio State has signed five recruiting classes since Ryan Day took over the football program, each having things to be excited about.

But what should we think of them years later now that players have gotten on the field?

On this episode of Buckeye Talk, Stephen Means and Nathan Baird break down Day’s recruiting classes trying to figure out if the way we viewed them on Signing Day held up years later. Which classes lived up to the hype? Did any overachieve? And what it says about Day’s program.

Thanks for listening to Buckeye Talk.

Read the automated transcript of today’s podcast below. Because it’s a computer-generated transcript, it may contain errors and misspellings.

Stephen Means (00:04.508)

Welcome back to Buckeye Talk. I’m Stephen Means and that’s Nathan Barrett and we’re going to do a very interesting exercise for this Monday pod. At least I think it’s pretty interesting. Ryan Day has now had five recruiting cycles as Ohio State’s official head coach 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024. That’s five classes he signed. So we’re not including the 2025 class and this was currently ranked second in the country with a couple of five stars and a few top one recruits because that one’s still being built. And we’re also not including the 2019 class in this conversation.

because that’s more of a transitional class. It’s like, I mean, you got hired as a coach three weeks before it had to sign. So we’re never going to give you too much of a blame or credit for a class like that. But I do have numbers on that one as well. It finished with 17 players, 14th in the country. In fact, it’s the only class in the past 12 years that hasn’t finished in the top five. But as I said, transitional year, Urban Meyer had just retired. So that’s understandable. Maybe had Urban Meyer not retired, guys like Jordan Battle stick around and Doug Nestor.

three five -star recruits in it, four top 100 recruits. The highest rated guy was 12th and the lowest rated guy was 1 ‚127th.

those three five star recruits, I’m only bringing this down because I think it’s going to play a part in the conversation we have going forward, Nathan, but the three five star recruits, Zach Harrison, Garrett Wilson and Harry Miller, all three of those guys in year two were starters. And then you add in Jameson Williams as the other top 100 recruit. And so when you’re judging top 100 recruits, Nathan, that’s how we judge them. It’s like in year two, are you ready to play? Well, Zach Harrison and Garrett Wilson had legitimate roles as two freshmen. Harry Miller was the backup center and Jameson Williams was on special teams. And in year two,

All four of those guys are starters. Jameson Williams obviously ends up transferring after the 2020 season where he turns it to a first round pick at Alabama. Harry Miller was expected to be the long -term solution that center after being the left guard in 2020, but then real life happened. So, I mean, we’re not.

Stephen Means (01:59.068)

Discrediting any anybody real life happened while Garrett Wilson’s of being the only three and done first round draft pick Zach Harrison a day to pick After his fourth year in the program, okay, that’s the 2019 class going forward with Ryan day I have numbers comparing Ryan day to urban Meyer But then I also have what we’re gonna do here is Nathan and I both came up with our own formulas to how to judge Ohio State’s recruiting classes and that’s both

what they are, the day they signed and how we talk about them, but then how we talk about them once they’re done, right? Once they’ve actually been through the program. That’s the stars don’t matter part of this, where it’s like, okay, you’ve developed them. What did they turn into? Were they productive players for you? How many were draft picks? How many were first round draft picks? How many lived up to the ranking?

that they came in with, how many surpassed that ranking and everything on down the list here. And some of this is kind of inspire. Well, shout out to Dan Hope from 11 Warriors. He did this on the 2018 recruiting class. That class is wrapped up with Josh Proctor and Matthew Jones being the last people to come through the program. They did go on draft, but he looked back at that class, which at the time was the highest rated class in program history. And then to look at how stark the difference was from maybe how you were talking about that group on signing day in December of 2017 to how you’re talking.

talking about them now kind of sparked this idea for Nathan and I. So Nathan, five classes, the lowest have been 2020 was ranked fifth, and 2024 was ranked fifth as well. They’ve all had at least 21 players over the last three classes, 21, the first two, 25, and 24. When you were coming up with your formula for how you were gonna judge these groups, just kind of take us through your thought process and coming to the conclusions you were coming through.

of whether or not you thought this ended up being a quality recruiting class on a year by year basis for Ohio State.

Nathan Baird (03:51.598)

Yes, you’ve already hit on a couple of reasons why you can’t just judge a recruiting class based on where it ranked. Number one, I think the ratings, I’m always hesitant to take them as like true gospel, any single snapshot. Much more useful as you’re talking about what a program does over the course of a longer span. Any single rating could be wrong. We’ve seen five star guys come to this program and be some of the best players in the history of the game.

We’ve seen five stars come here and not be able to get on the field after three or four years. Like that’s just, it’s not a perfect science. So part of it is still though, because in the aggregate, the results also follow those recruiting trends. Recruiting rankings do matter. Like how many five stars did you get? How many top 100s did you get? And what does that add to an accumulation over a three, four, five year period? So that’s part of it.

The other part of it is what else did you do with the class and were you correct on the developmental guys or, because there’s two classes in here that sort of stand out to me along this regard. There’s a class that we’re gonna talk about where they did so well at getting five stars and top 100 guys and most of them have then kind of followed through. It doesn’t really matter what they did with their very few.

kind of diamond in the rough shots they took, the more developmental guys at the bottom of that list. And then they’ve got some other years where, in one in particular, where it’s a little bit lighter at the top, but there’s indications so far, it’s one of the more recent classes, that...

they did a good job with those like 200, 250, like 250 on down. When I was kind of putting together, I was breaking things up from like, you know, five star top 100. And then I jumped usually all the way down to like 300 and under. And those guys are still four star guys. Those guys are still, you know, major college football prospects. But by the Ohio State standard, there is where there usually is kind of a break between the guys that you’re expecting to come in and be multi -year starters and the guys who are gonna have to.

Nathan Baird (06:04.334)

fight a little hard to get to that standard. But there’s a class here where it seems like they did a good job at that level. And I think you’ve seen at a couple of key positions a bit of a shift here in the last couple of years. And it’ll be no surprise when we start talking about those positions, which coaches were talking about. But where I think that they’ve started getting a lot of bang for their buck or a

or getting that’s not the right way to say it especially in the i don’t want to i’m not insinuating something in the age of nil i i think they’re getting a they’re getting guys at that are that look like they’re going to overachieve what those recruiting rankings were whether that is guys who are still top 100 guys who might end up looking like they should have been five stars or guys who are four stars high four stars who might look like they should have been top 100 guys like we’re starting to see some of that

start to track in. So I do think it is like top to bottom. Are you getting, like how early are your guys getting on the field? You already mentioned that. How impactful are guys? So that’s the other part of it. Are you getting NFL guys? There’s only been a couple of years where we can really judge that. But as you said before, like how many of the guys in this class, like I don’t care what they were ranked when they came in, what are you ranking them on the way out? How did they perform? And in some cases, that’s,

there may be blocked or something, you don’t get as quick of a chance to perform. But other times are they forcing their way onto the field early? And there’s something else that we start to see a little bit of an uptake in here these last couple of years. So that was kind of my, like broadly what my definitions were. And sometimes you also though have to remember every recruiting decision is unique and sort of every recruiting class is unique. There’s going to be dynamics that play into.

why they did or didn’t get certain guys. And we have to keep those in mind too, that if you dig in, just looking at those numbers, there’s usually a bigger story in why a guy is in this class or isn’t in this class, or sometimes why a guy was ranked where he is and where he isn’t, like the Chris Olaves of the world. Like there were reasons sometimes that factor into, it looks like you made a big developmental win or you found a diamond in the rough.

Nathan Baird (08:28.11)

but also there were just some kind of screwy things with his high school career that contributed him being that low.

Stephen Means (08:35.612)

That matters still though, because even if there’s context behind Chris didn’t play his junior year of high school football, that there’s context. So maybe he isn’t that low if he plays that year, but also maybe he still is right there because people look at where his development was at that point in his life where, I mean, Chris was kind of small when he got here. It’s not like he physically was the most imposing receipt, right? He wasn’t Marvin Harrison Jr., Jeremiah Smith. I wouldn’t even say he was Jackson Smith, the Jigba, Emeka, Buka physically when he first got here. So you still,

There’s a little bit of luck, right? That whole, you go out there to see Jack Tuttle and you end up, because Jack Tuttle has to throw the ball to somebody, he’s throwing to his teammate Chris Olave, that’s how you end up finding Chris Olave, but that’s part of this, right? Are you in the right place at the right time? And then also, do you pay attention to your instincts? Because Ryan could have looked at that, said, that’s just a good receiver and moved on, but he didn’t. He turned it into something. You said, you do the same thing with DeJuan Jones in the 19 class, where it’s like.

Yeah, maybe, but you’re not 100 % sure that dude’s gonna turn into something. I know Greg Chajawa told our former colleague Doug at the time, if it hits, he’s a first rounder, but that’s if it hits, you still gotta develop it and on down the list. So for me, I think I love how you separated it, the 300 and under, I kind of did the same thing, I had the 300 and under, but then I also had five star and top 100 recruits, because there is a science to turning five stars.

five -star recruits and the five -star talents and the five -star NFL draft picks. There is something to that. As far as the way I did the getting on the field, I have a category where it’s like, have they played a thousand snaps or for some of the guys who are a little bit younger, are they at least on pace to get a thousand career snaps? Because now that comes with some caveats there. Obviously, Jackson Smith, the Jigma didn’t get to a thousand snaps in his career, but that’s because he played 60 snaps his junior year. He would have played a thousand snaps in his career.

You got a guy like Ty Hamilton who’s like 45 snaps away from a thousand snaps in his crib But for me that number matters because that means you’re getting playing time over multiple seasons Or you’re an offensive lineman who’s starting the entire year, right? Like Carson Hensman in the 2022 class as well on his way to a thousand snaps in his career So that’s we it seems like we use different language to get to the same categories in the situations. So let’s start

Stephen Means (10:54.172)

with 2020 and we can work our way down. Cause obviously with classes like the 22, 23 and 24, 24 you can’t do anything. They just got here. So it’s like, Hey, did they hit on Jeremiah Smith? Yes. We’ll see about everybody else in the class. But with 2020, 25 players ranked fifth nationally, three five -star recruits. Those three five -star recruits were Julian Fleming,

The number three player and the top wide receiver in the country. In fact, he was like one of the five highest rated players they’d ever signed at the time that they signed him. Paris Johnson, number nine player, the top offensive tackle. Obviously, Gauzon ends up being the number one tackle in his draft class. That’s probably a hit. Jaxis Mithajigma, number 29 player and number five wide receiver in his recruiting class, ends up being a three and done talent. Other top 100 recruits, they had...

They had seven total top 100 recruits. So you’ve got CJ Stroud, that’s your quarterback, G Scott, Cody Simon, Mookie Cooper. And that’s it. That’s all the top 100 recruits. And then Luke Whipp was right outside of that at 108. When you look at this class from top to bottom, a lot of them have come through the program already. There are still some guys hanging around, like Lathan Ransom is still hanging around.

Court Williams though, I’m not sure that he’s gonna play football again though. We’ll see what happens in that situation. But Lathan Ransom expected to be a starter this year. As we mentioned, Ty Hamilton expected to be a starter this year. But they’re kinda at the end of their life here at Ohio State. When you view this class five years later, well not six years later, what do you think? Did Ohio State maximize the 2020 recruiting class based on how you evaluated things?

Nathan Baird (12:33.102)

Yeah, so again, three five stars and seven top 100. Those are almost sort of like what you would consider like baseline numbers, right? Like that should be almost the bare minimum that Ohio State is getting. And seven top 100, that still means that there’s only that means there’s only 93 for all the rest of college football to get. But still, that’s the Ohio State standard is you’re getting a big share of those guys. But one year later, they had 14. So we’ll come back to that in a second.

So seven is kind of a middling number. I think though, so again, by that standard, it’s kind of like, okay, you know, fifth nationally, seven top 100s, only three five stars. Though that’s not like a small number. Those are like B grades, right? Three five stars, seven top 100s. Where I think this class goes over the top is the NFL production so far. I mean, Paris Johnson,

top 10 draft pick, whatever he was, sixth or seventh. Jackson Smith and Jigba, first Roger Steaver off the board in a first round draft pick, even coming off of a major injury. CJ Stroud might be an NFL MVP someday. Like, you can kind of stop the list there. Luke Whippler came out too early, and then Lathan Ransom is probably the other one from this class that I think is maybe projecting right now as the best NFL player. Am I forgetting someone from 2020?

Stephen Means (13:56.092)

Either him or Ty Hamilton, and that might depend on depth of position.

Nathan Baird (13:58.734)

Yeah, similar range. And where this class, this is why I think this class gets more credit for being a good recruiting class than what it ended up being on the field in some ways, because all those guys left early. Like Paris Johnson’s only here three years. And you could have, you would have projected that you did not project Luke Whipple and only being here three years. And I think if everyone had to do that over again, maybe that would go a different way. And he would have still been here.

a year ago and how different is Ohio State’s offense look with a NFL center who’s playing at a high level before he goes off and becomes a higher draft pick than he was. And then the Stroud thing, again, that’s about as good as it can get from a quarterback standpoint. Other than finding somebody just off the complete scrap heap and turning them into a Heisman Trophy finalist, but that doesn’t really...

happen in the. It’s rare. It’s pretty rare that you see guys who are completely off the radar anymore and then build themselves into that kind of player. And and especially now a guy who was an NFL rookie of the year. And it really just looks like he’s poised to do tremendous things in the NFL. And. You kind of have to give any class extra credit when it hits the quarterback that perfectly.

when it was a guy who you already had a plan for quarterback in that class. And then this guy came along and you recognized what he was and you fought to get him and you brought him in and then you developed him and then he did what he did. There are some ways that you can talk about the end result of this class, in this class that technically they, I mean, they never beat Michigan because 2020 that game did not get played and then.

Ransom still can there’s guys in this class that still can but the ones who’ve come through did not and if that’s a big part of your Criteria then I’m sure there are people out there who would legitimately put that in their criteria I would just caution to whether you can ever put that on any one class and They’re not doing it all by themselves and this class the guys in this class CJ Stroud in particular were

Nathan Baird (16:23.662)

Not the reasons why they didn’t beat Michigan. They were other the most extenuating factor being how good Michigan decided to get just at the same time. So. That’s maybe the one thing that’s out there. I think the one. Place where this class did came up a little bit short. It really hurt them when both Paris and Whippler left because they had several developmental offensive linemen in this class. This is the class that lays the foundation for.

the offensive line angst that’s been around last season and this season. And that, but partially because of the success, partially because Paris Johnson legitimately was a three year and done NFL first round draft pick. And because Luke Whippler erroneously thought he was ready to be a high NFL draft pick or mid round NFL draft pick and ended up going in the sixth round. That I can’t really hold that against the class. That’s the part of the reason why there was more of a hole last year.

They really probably needed one of the developmental in -state guys to be a better player, to be a guy who was more like some guys that we’re gonna talk about later in this conversation, your Carson Hensmans and your Tegra Shabola’s, like guys who are more in that range that might have changed a little bit the complexion of how we’ve talked about the offensive line in the last couple of years. So that is a little bit of a hole in this class, but overall you got.

almost everything you probably needed out of this class. You got, not generational players, I hate, we use that term too much, but you got elite, elite players at left tackle, receiver, and quarterback. And you got good players at other positions. And to go to, you’d have to really be nitpicking, I think, to take this down to the point where you don’t consider this a good class.

Stephen Means (18:21.084)

So to your point with the offensive lineman, getting one of those developmental guys to hit, the closest to that is probably Josh Fryer, who is going to be a two -year starter now, number 502 and number 28 guard in that class. He’s going to be a two -year starter. And really, he’s been in the 2D for about two or three or four years now. I think this is a good class. One, because you had three top 50 recruits.

Three of them are three and done legitimate first round draft picks. And the other one is Julian Fleming who, this is where the context parts come in. One, Julian Fleming had Chris Olave in front of him as he received his first two years here. So that’s the context. Two, Julian Fleming dealt with a lot of injuries his first couple of years here at Ohio State. But once he got on the field, he was productive. He’s since transferred out now, but that’s in year five.

In the four, he was at Ohio State for four years. He played over a thousand snaps. And when the quarterback play was good, he was a productive number three receiver. So you go three out of four on top 50 recruits. You pull in Cody Simon as well, as I was talking about with the 19 class, your top 100 recruits, all those guys are starters in year two.

Paris Johnson, starter in year two. It was that right guard, but he’s a starter. T .J. Strauss, starter in year two. Jackson Smith and Jigba, starter in year two. Cody Simon was the starting Mike Linebacker in 2021. Did he lose the job to Tommy Eichenberg in 22 and 23? Sure, but in 2021, he was the starting Mike Linebacker. So there’s four top 100 recruits who were near two, they got themselves onto the field. G. Scott changed positions. It happens. That’s football.

You know, at least they caught it early because in 2021 he was a tight end. It’s not like he was three years into his career. Then they caught it. Mookie Cooper transfers after year one. Luke Whippler. Here’s where I give them the most credit for Luke Whippler. Because he was ready to play in year two when they weren’t expecting him to play. I think that’s got to matter. Like they spent the year because yes, it was real life for why Harry Miller wasn’t playing, but it could have very easily just been a football reason.

Nathan Baird (20:15.79)

Yep. Yep.

Stephen Means (20:24.476)

I’m like, okay, Harry had an injury. Now we’ve got to throw Luke Whipple out there against Minnesota and Luke Whipple looked great all year long. I thought he was a pretty quality center. So you’ve got to, you quality that’s quality as well. And then Lathan Rantum, I think he was the first one who got a chance to flash outside of Jackson with the jigs, but like for a full game in that big 10 championship game in 2020, I showed he was probably ready to go. And he continued that on in 2021 as well. Few transfers though.

This is where it gets interesting because in comparison to Urban Meyer, Urban’s transfers by year are kind of all over the place, but that’s also a different era of transfers. This class, nine transfers, does that matter to you, Nathan, the fact that 25 guys, they lost nine guys to the transfer portal within their first four years of college football?

Nathan Baird (21:13.518)

So it doesn’t matter to me in this case, and here’s why. When you look at who transferred, and setting aside Julian Fleming, because like you said, that’s a fifth year transfer. I’m talking about guys who transfer within those first four years or three years. You have to go down all the way to, well, Mookie Cooper, but that Mookie Cooper transferring was someone, I think, quickly realizing this wasn’t the right fit.

And not that they couldn’t play at this level, but that it wasn’t the way Ohio State had then recruited behind him and was going to keep recruiting in the future. And the guys who were still going to be around, he would have still been waiting till now to try to get on the field. Probably he’d be looking in. It doesn’t make any sense to stick around for five years and try to play, which by the way, he wouldn’t, he still wouldn’t be playing this coming year. Probably he could go off to another power five and play. That was, I think.

So that’s not a negative to the class. Someone like Darien Henry Young, then you go all the way down to 154, 163, Darien Henry Young, Jacoby Cowan, guys like that transferring out. Again.

if they don’t go in this very next recruiting class and get two top five defensive ends, and Tylek Williams, then, and Mike Hall, I mean, like, they were just victims of the next class being so great at their position. And that changes the math. It changes the math of how you were thinking about being a part of the program the day that you signed. So, and then anything below that, like once you start getting out of the top 200, then that’s just,

You’re just going to have those. You’re going to have a certain amount of churn among that group of guys, the Ryan Watts, the Cam Martinez, Jack Miller, certainly like that situation change. So that sounds like a big number. That’s like, you know, 30 % of the class or whatever is a 25%. So more than that, more than a 30 or class as transfers. But realistically, A, that’s actually kind of a common number now, I think. And then B, you don’t look at this in Ohio State.

Nathan Baird (23:24.846)

very rarely, as we’ve talked about many times, is it a situation where it’s like, you really missed something here, or this was a bad idea for both parties from the beginning. Like, you don’t really look back at that, or you don’t see guys who you’re counting on who leave. Like, Ohio State doesn’t ever really, really have that. And when you take Fleming off of this,

You can go down, I mean, Fleming, Paris Johnson, Jackson Spithajigba, CJ Stroud, G Scott, Cody Simon. So that’s the first, whatever, the seven or eight guys in this class. All those guys you would say are not misses, right? Like I wouldn’t count any of those guys as a miss, whatever that means. And then after Luca Cooper, you get Luke Whippler. So you’re going like almost 10 deep before you would call someone, before you’d even start, and by that point of any class,

the hit or miss thing doesn’t really factor anymore. So no, like that sounds like a big number, but I think that’s almost just what the number is gonna be on almost any class going forward. Don’t you expect like a third of the guys to not make it to year four? I kinda do anymore. And especially those guys, like as we talked about many times, Doug used to talk about this all the time. Like those guys who were like 200, 250 and below, out of state guys.

Stephen Means (24:23.996)

Thank you.

Stephen Means (24:32.38)

Mm -hmm. Mm -hmm.

Nathan Baird (24:50.222)

Like if you’re not playing by end of year two and don’t see a real role for yourself, you’re probably leaving because it’s just harder to stick around when you’re hundreds of miles from home.

Stephen Means (25:00.54)

It’s their largest group of transfers, but it’s also their largest recruiting class. So it pairs up there. 25 commit signees, nine transfers, to your point. It’s still only a third of the class, just like the rest of them. I think this class set a tone for what Ohio State’s recruiting classes have often been. Now we’re gonna get into the 2021 class after the break, which is the big explosion class, but great quarterback.

Nathan Baird (25:04.782)

Yeah. Yeah.

Stephen Means (25:25.116)

Lots of great receivers. Some of them are going to hit and some of them are going to leave. You’re completely fine with that because the next batch of receivers you’re bringing in are just as good. The in -state recruiting is pretty quality.

but there’s some things maybe left to be desired on the front end when you sign it, and then it plays out in your face in the back end when you’re developing it. We looked at that class on signing dance and where’s your offensive lineman? And here we are three, four years later going, see, they were missing some offensive lineman in the situation. You can probably say the same thing about safety and cornerback and a few other places as well, but it does feel like the following class, they start to correct at least some of those spots. We’re gonna take a quick break here. Both of us saying,

2020 class, good class, not great, not elite, but good class, both on signing day. And then after we’ve seen it play out, some of those guys still around on the roster, Cody Simon, Mitchell Melton, Lathan Ransom, still here, Court Williams, still on the roster as of right now as well. Ty Hamilton still here as well. We’re gonna take a quick break here and then we’re gonna get into what’s probably gonna be the meat of this. And that’s a class we once thought was gonna be the heart of a super team when we come back here on Buckeye Talk.

Stephen Means (26:33.902)

So we’re evaluating Ryan Day’s recruiting class as head coach, both on the day they signed and then what they have turned out to be. There’s really only three where we can do that storybook ending from beginning to end because they’ve been around long enough for us to at least have a conversation about it. So far we’ve talked about the 2020 class. Four players have been drafted so far from that class. Three of them were first round draft picks. I mean, there’s a couple other guys that we think are going to add to that draft, not the first round part of it, but definitely at least in the draft part, Ty Hamilton.

Julian Fleming, I don’t know, I think he could have gotten drafted this year, seeing how this wide receiver class prayed out, but I understand why he felt like he needed another year to maybe show some other stuff, maybe if he’s a little bit healthier. But Ty Hamilton, Latham Rantz, and those guys might get drafted and add to that number as well. So now we’re on to the number two class. Get the text, 614 -350 -315. Share your thoughts with us on what you think on how we’re doing this. How would you evaluate these classes on the other side of things?

2021 class, Nathan, a lot of this was built while we were all stuck in house. They couldn’t go out on the road and recruit. They couldn’t take visitors. And yet it felt like in the spring of 2020 when a lot of this was getting built, Ohio State had no problems building up what ended up being a 24 -man class, really a 23 -man class, because Quinn Hewer has joined it late. But fine, he’s on the list. Number two nationally, you had.

Seven five stars, six plus one. That’s how I have typically done the Quinn -Uers thing. And 13 plus one with the top 100 recruits. You had only three guys.

Under 300, your highest rated guy, Quinn Ures was number one. If you don’t want to include him, your highest ranked guy was JT Tui Maloa with number five and Jack Sawyer at number, excuse me, JT Tui Maloa at number four and then Jack Sawyer at number five. Your lowest rated guy, 1 ‚103 in that class, I believe, unless I’m, no, 406. This is without including a specialist because that’s obviously specialists are low. The lowest individual player non -specialist was Jaylen Johnson at 406. So only one player under 400 and then you have,

Stephen Means (28:37.662)

two under guys under 300 on signing day this is about as good as it gets right

Nathan Baird (28:44.846)

I think you could probably go so far as to say this is almost a prototypical class. You’ve got...

Seven five stars in the 24 seven composite and 14 top 100 guys like this is I think what you aim for and you’re not gonna always get that because there aren’t always frankly like 14 guys in the top 100 that you want at those positions right like that that is always something else to remember as you’re as we’re analyzing a class and I need to say that to myself before about like they only had seven guys in top 100 it’s like well maybe they weren’t eight guys that they felt like they had to fight for like

And there’s certainly some guys you’re not going to win every single recruiting battle. But 14 is a pretty big haul. Like when you’ve got 14 percent of the top 100, pretty solid. And so far, the NFL payoff has already hit like you had Marvin Harrison Jr. go fourth overall, you have Mike Hall go in the second round. So you’ve already. Hit big with this class. So in terms of the volume of talent, in terms of the.

the breadth of talent, of how many different places you’re helping yourself, in terms of... This is the class I was talking about that was just so top -heavy that you don’t even really care what’s going on down at the bottom of the list. Like, you don’t need those guys. You weren’t relying on this class to have the diamonds in the rough really hit in the way that they have in some of these other years, or the way that they...

the way they did need them to hit in some of these other years, almost that it was almost part of the plan. It’s like, well, we’ve got all these guys who we know are good. And then here’s a bunch of like possibilities. We kind of need some of those to come through. So, yeah, this is about as good as it gets. The only thing that this class lacked was getting quarterback all the way right. And they didn’t get it all the way right.

Nathan Baird (30:51.118)

They got two guys, technically, when you include Quinn Ures, though I don’t, it’s, I don’t really. That’s a completely different scenario. He’s kind of almost in a recruiting class of his own, which then doesn’t end up existing because he only played, you know, three handoffs here, whatever. The comic -cord thing being the first time that Ryan Day got the quarterback process wrong. And that’s not me saying all the blame goes on Ryan Day.

It’s not me saying that Comma Cord himself was just some failure. There was, I think, some shared blame for why that ended up the way it did and why it didn’t get all the way there, both from a coaching developmental side and from a player developmental side. And...

That does leave a hole. It left a hole in the performance last year when you had such potential for that team to, it was great in so many other areas that if you have quarterback play that’s X percent better and it’s not a huge number, I don’t think you’re putting on that, then that puts them over the top. If they’ve been able to sustain what they’ve been expecting quarterback, it probably puts that team over the top. We might be talking about Ohio State National Championship follow -up.

this year.

And then when the Uers thing went sideways for whatever reason, there were things out of their control, it just leaves a gap. And that’s why this year, you’re again, don’t have like certainty at quarterback. You’re still going into the season with all this potential and still thinking like, well, is the quarterback play gonna be good enough? Like, does anyone have evidence yet that this quarterback play will be better than last year’s quarterback play? Like it’s...

Nathan Baird (32:41.518)

possible in theory, you might even say it’s probable, but we don’t know for sure. And anytime you’ve left the program with that big fat question mark at the most important position, and it was an important position in this recruiting class, then it does leave you a little bit lacking. In volume and in totality of what you did, I think it is almost like,

The example that you would strive for year in and year out knowing you’re not always going to get there because this is so good. But you gotta get quarterback right. You’ve just gotta get quarterback right.

Stephen Means (33:24.764)

I think what hurts there is that you had two five -star quarterbacks and both of them are still playing college football and neither one of them are playing for you. One felt more mutual in terms of moving on from that guy and the other one just felt like it was just doomed from the moment he reclassified. But like, Quinn Ubers is still playing college football right now, he’s gonna be a three -year starter. So it’s almost like had he not reclassified, right, he’d still be on his normal timeline. I think this class...

Unfortunately, and I’ve always wanted to talk with somebody about this because the 2021 class in general, not just at Ohio State, but just nationally.

Sometimes a lot of these rankings are just like people getting their eyes on them as much as humanly possible and things were weird that year. Some of these guys didn’t even play their senior year high school. Like Jack Sawyer didn’t play a senior high school. Travion Henderson didn’t play a senior high school. Some other guys didn’t play their senior in a high school. Kyle McCoy, Marvin Harrison played like three games of their senior year high school. So it’s like.

Are these rankings in a way to the point that for how much they matter, how different do these rankings look if we don’t have a global pandemic during what is essentially this, this classes last year of high school football? You know, are there guys who are maybe hired? Is Denzel Burke, 199, if he doesn’t separate his shoulder, his first game of his high school senior year, but also he is able to spend that spring and summer leading into his high school senior year doing all the camps, you know, all the stuff where you get all of these rankings, but.

Even with that, I mean, Denzel Burke’s 199 and he ends up being a four year starter at corner for you. And he’s one of the best cornerbacks in college football. That’s a hit. Tylee Williams is 166. And we’ve agreed Nathan that of the people on this team, outside of Marvin Harrison Jr. He might have the second best case for why he should have been an All -American last year. That’s a hit to me. Jack Sawyer and JT Twielmo Lowell have been hits to me. The problem is, I think we set the bar so high.

Stephen Means (35:22.268)

based off their recruiting rankings for what they were going to be, that now that they’re on the other end and all but two of them are still on the roster, I am wondering how people view that. Now, because when we looked at this class, we’re going, in 2024, Ohio State’s gonna have the biggest draft class ever, 2023 is gonna be a super team year, they’ve got all these three -in -one talent guys, and now they’re still here. And that’s a good thing for 2024, it’s a good thing for the program.

But when you, I mean, when we’re doing pods about this team being a super team and it’s not quite that, and it doesn’t quite meet a bar and an expectation that I’m not even sure is fair for them to have in the first place, I think for me, I have to give it the same energy I had for it back in 2020. And that’s that this is a really, really, really great recruiting class, but not quite.

everything you thought it was going to be. Even in a world where nine of these guys have either already played a thousand snaps in their career or one pace to do it. And as you mentioned, they’ve got one first round draft pick in Marvin Harrison Jr. and one other guy who’s gotten drafted so far. Seven transfers, but kind of like the 2020 class, none of the transfers are people that hurt you. Even JK Johnson being a top victory recruit, it’s like, why did he leave? Cause they saw what he was on the field and he wasn’t quite living up to that, but also.

What’s come after that has made you feel comfortable with some of those transfers. And then some of the other transfers, Andre Turentine, who was 169, Jensen Dunn, who’s 172. So not Sam Hart, who’s 388, Jaylen Johnson, 406. So J .K. Johnson is the only one where if we told you this guy was gonna transfer him and Evan Pryor at number 83, where you’re like, man, that’s probably a miss if there’s a top.

90 recruit who’s transferring, but just that thought process, Nathan of we thought so highly of what this class could be. Maybe that wasn’t fair to them, but now that it’s on the other side, them not quite living up to that three and done super team level team. Did you any pushback just because of that idea?

Nathan Baird (37:30.478)

No, because, again...

Nathan Baird (37:35.438)

It’s too reductive to think, to say, well, it’s a top two class. So you have to win a national championship with that. It doesn’t take any account of what’s going on around you. And our perspective on what was happening around Ohio State and around the rest of college football changes over the course of those three seasons. And the nucleus of why this team...

went into week 12 last year, considered still a strong national championship contender, was this class. Like this guy, these, this, and it’s the reason why this team is number one in the country on a lot of lists right now. It’s not necessarily the additions, the Quinchon Judkins, the, you know, we still don’t know for sure, like that Will Howard will be the starter and we’ll be like great at it. It’s not Seth McLaughlin. It’s not even Caleb Downs because that defense was already good.

It’s the whole list from this year. It’s JT Tumalo, Jack Sawyer, Mecca Buka, Donovan Jackson, Trevion Henderson, Michael, well Michael’s gone, but Jordan Hanco*ck. I mean, Tylek Williams, Denzel Burke. Like this is the reason why I just named you like eight or nine of the reasons why if you were making a top 10 list, the top, if you’re naming the top 10 players that will take Ohio State to a national championship this year, isn’t that most of the list? So.

The only position that I think that this lacks at all is that quarterback didn’t get where we thought it was gonna be. Like we don’t think Common Cord played at the level we probably expected him to play with after three years in the program as someone who was ranked the way he did, was. Like I don’t think, I think that’s a fair way to say it. And I’ve been someone who’s been like,

partial defender of him and being like, hey, the quarterback play wasn’t as miserable as people sometimes try to make it out to be. But it wasn’t like elite. It wasn’t elite. I don’t know how anyone would argue that it was. And that’s what you’re expecting from a guy ranked that high to be able to do after three years in the program, right? And then the fact that the Ubers thing, which is the Ubers thing definitely skewed when we used to have those super team conversations. Like that definitely changed.

Nathan Baird (39:59.598)

When they got him, that’s what made the super team thing seem more plausible because your assumption of elite play at quarterback became even more certain, right? It was easier to assume that. And when neither of those things come to fruition, then that just has left the hole that Ohio State is now still, as we sit here in mid -May, trying to...

push across the finish line. So I would push back, like I don’t think this class has fallen short of what this class is the nucleus of what was one of the, I still would argue one of the three or four best teams in the country last year and is now projected by many people to be the national championship favorite as we head into this season. Like this class is the nucleus of that. So that’s, and it was a big part of the class of the team that two years ago,

was one point away from knocking off Georgia and then probably going on to winning that national championship, if you want to use the transitive properties of things. So I think this class has given Ohio State pretty much everything it asked for that day. It can’t be the only reason though. Like you can’t, like they weren’t going to get 22 starters out of this class. And there were some things that had happened before with the offensive line that this class alone could not solve and the quarterback thing. And...

Other than quarterback, I really don’t think that you look at this class and say it fell short of where you wanted to be because frankly, as much as the expectations were high for the JT, Tumalo Isles and Jack Sawyers and those guys, they weren’t that high for Tyler Williams. He has surpassed what was expected. I think Denzel Burke has surpassed what was expected and he surpassed it pretty quickly, like being able to start at the beginning of his freshman year. So there’s that, that all kind of balances out for me.

Maybe some of those guys haven’t been as great as you might’ve assumed on signing day 2021, but some of these other guys have easily surpassed what you expected. It had been, and like I said before, and I’ve said it before on this pod, the stars stop mattering. I’m not saying they don’t matter, but the stars that you came in with stop mattering at some point, and only the stars that next to your name as you leave are what determine how.

Nathan Baird (42:25.326)

good a recruiting class was. And this class retains a lot of those stars at the top and then has some other guys who would have pushed themselves up farther. You would rank, we would rank Denzel Burke, Tylek Williams, guys like that, higher than we did on signing day 2021.

Stephen Means (42:39.62)

That’s a that’s a fair point How many five stars do you think are in this class now we to To your point of what you’re talking about that the recruiting star ratings don’t matter. What’s your star and not you’re on the football field?

Nathan Baird (42:56.43)

Well, five star is it’s a measure of potential first round. That’s what we said before. So, I mean, right now you would still, I think yours would still be on that list. I mean, they’ve, he’s been talked about that way. to him a low out Sawyer, Ibuka.

And then there’s guys who you know my call wouldn’t be because he he only went in the second round so we can Kind of cross him off. There’s and then you got Marvin who was in this class who already was a first -round pick so right there there’s four and As again not saying all those guys will be but as you’re projecting right now and then you think that Ty leak and Denzel Burke both could be so it could be six and I don’t think term in Henderson. We’ve talked before about running backs like I don’t know if that’s in his future and

Stephen Means (43:41.787)

Mm -hmm.

Nathan Baird (43:47.726)

I mean, Donovan Jackson, I don’t know if I’d give him like even a half share of possibility to get there, but I wouldn’t give him zero. Like there’s, there’s, this could be a big haul of first round picks. Not all of which ended up staying in Ohio State’s program, I understand, but still, yeah, this was a big first round NFL draft class. It gave you almost everything you could have expected in that regard too.

Stephen Means (43:54.876)

Mm -hmm.

Stephen Means (44:15.548)

So they could get the seven. But, and I’ll say this to your point with the Trevion Henderson thing, just because of where running back is today, on a year by year basis, you might just have to base it off. It can Trevion Henderson be the first running back taking off the board. And I do think that on the table, could Donovan Jackson be the first interior offensive lineman taking off the board? Maybe, maybe. I’m not that keen on where the other guards and centers are right now, but maybe. So if we’re going to.

Nathan Baird (44:29.454)

Yeah, that’s all on the table. Yeah.

Stephen Means (44:41.692)

just for the sake of where the NFL draft is, I would think that’s five star level if you’re the first running back taken off the board in a world where you’re not Bijon Robinson, you’re not Saquon Barkley where it’s like, you’re going to be the number six pick in the NFL draft. So you’ve, you’ve solved me. I wasn’t sure yet with this one. I kind of had a, I don’t know, let’s have a conversation about it. I think this is a great class. Then yeah, you had seven guys who you signed who came in with to what the five star rating is. It means that people are projecting you to have first round potential and.

We’re sitting here recording this pod in May and there’s seven guys who, one of which has already proven, yes, I am a first round draft pick.

When I wasn’t, I was number 99, I think. No, 97 was Marvin Harrison Jr.’s ranking coming out of college. So we’re talking about Tidal League Williams and Denzel Burke outplaying their rankings. There were 13 other wide receivers ranked higher than Marvin Harrison Jr. when he showed up at Ohio State. And there are not 13 wide receivers in the NFL. I might take over Marvin Harrison Jr. right now. So to your point, that’s another one. And so seven guys who might still be five -star level players.

on the other side and only one of them didn’t do it in your program. Plus, this is a team who has been a play away from maybe a national championship the last two years, most of which is because of this class. Yeah, this is a great class. Are they super team level? No, but super teams are hard to get gauge anyway. Are any one of these individual guys?

Super superstars the way that chase young went from five star to super superstar Jeff Okuda five started super superstars Nick Bosa super superstar probably not but this is a conversation of like the whole is greater than the sum of its parts because the whole Has lived up to the standard and now a lot of these guys are back and now that some of these parts might just live up to the standard as well So I’m with you. This is a great recruiting class for you

Nathan Baird (46:36.366)

But to me to me this is also a good reminder for myself that.

A great class like this can still only be a nucleus, and this nucleus puts them ahead of many, many, many other teams. But I don’t think you can just do it with one class. You’re gonna have to, you can’t leave yourself, here’s the better way to say it, you cannot leave yourself vulnerable at important places and expect a class of even one this talented to still push you through.

to the national championship. Like there’s just too, it’s too hard to win in the margins against the very best teams in the country. Last year’s Michigan game being the very best example of that. Like you’re gonna get into a game where your offensive line just isn’t quite there. Your quarterback play just isn’t quite there. And all of a sudden a team makes literally no mistakes and that’s your season. And that I think has been maybe this class,

is what helps magnify sometimes where you didn’t get it done in other classes and where you then have to try to catch up in the classes that come after or in these modern days through the portal.

Stephen Means (48:03.164)

So let’s pair this with 2022. And by default, because so many guys in 21 got on the field so early because they needed them to, like a lot of these guys were playing as true freshmen. To different extent, you had Denzel Burke starting, JT and Jack were in the rotation, Tylee Williams was able to flash at times, Kyle McCord, Trey Henderson, not Trey, Trey Henderson, you’re starting running back by week three. Like a lot of these guys had to play real football for you.

as a freshman and then by year two most of his class is on the field, which to the point of like guys who have overall on pace to play over a thousand snaps, I think everybody, everybody but JK Johnson and Evan Pryor and then Reed Carrico. I think, actually let me finish with this with Reed Carrico. I think he’s the one top 100 recruit here where I kind of feel bad for a little bit because he’s a top 100 recruit who never really.

got to get it going at Ohio State, but also to your point of pairing it with other classes, partially is because of him. But the other part of this, there were older guys who ended up being better than expected. Tommy Eichenberg turning into an all American level player wasn’t the expectation when he signed. Steel Chambers turning into a pretty quality Big 10 linebacker when he showed up as a running back wasn’t expected. Cody Simon was probably the only guy when he’s projecting out.

Okay, this is how the 2D might look. Who’s like in front of me? And there’s like two other linebacker spots at the time, because they’re still playing the single high thing. But the defense changed so much, but then also some guys were just better than we expected them to be, left him in kind of no man’s land. So even as a top 100 recruiter who ended up transferring, it’s just kind of luck of the draw with a situation like that. And I think Evan Pryor.

was kind of in a situation where he just kind of got the short end of the stick with injuries and Mayim Williams being pretty good and Dallin Hayden being pretty good as well.

Nathan Baird (49:57.838)

Well, the other thing with with Keriko too, he comes in, is in the program for one year and then you get a coordinator switch and that coordinator brings in a defense that doesn’t really use a third linebacker very much. So all of a sudden, instead of competing for three spots, you’re competing for two. And if your skill set doesn’t, isn’t as broad as some of the other guys or whatever, then then it’s just harder to get on the field.

Stephen Means (50:04.252)

Yep.

Nathan Baird (50:25.678)

That was another thing that when we judge, well, this didn’t turn out the way we thought it would. Well, things change. Like things change from the time a guy signs to the time a guy is in his second year. And it really even has a chance to play sometimes. And he’s one of the best examples of that. I don’t think anybody really doubts that Reed Carrico is a good football player, but there also no doubt that what chance did he ever have to show it at Ohio State just because of the circ*mstances.

You know, Tommy Eichenberg, I think overachieved a little bit based on his recruiting placement. Steel Chambers wasn’t even a linebacker when Reed Carrico was doing most of his recruiting process. So it’s not like you ever had to think you’re going to have to beat him out, right? And then in that next class, they start bringing in five star guys. So it’s just sometimes the timing changes and there’s no reason really teams can do about it. I think you have to do the best with what’s right in front of you.

And then as circ*mstances change over the coming year, even if it’s not something as drastic as a coordinator bringing in a new defense, you have to then do the best with what’s in front of you based on those circ*mstances, because the circ*mstances keep changing under your feet no matter what you do.

Stephen Means (51:38.396)

Okay, so let’s.

This is going to be a shorter conversation just because it’s not as many people have played. 2022 fourth ranked class in the country. You have one five, excuse me, a two five star recruits. C .J. Hicks as a number seven player at the top linebacker in the country. And then Sonny Styles, originally a 23 guy, reclassifies number 12 player top safety in that class. Other top 100 recruits. You had seven total. Devin Brown, Kenyatta Jackson, Amari Abor, Caleb Brown, Keon Gray’s as well. Those last three guys have all transferred.

Since then, they’re a part of a class that’s already lost. Eight transfers, yeah, they’ve yeah, they’ve lost a lot of transfers, but also. This class seems like I don’t want to say they’ve been blocked, but they’ve been blocked in a way because a lot of these guys play positions where Ohio State didn’t need guys to play right away.

And here they are in their third year in the program. Only two guys right now are on pace to play a thousand snaps. And that’s Sonny Stiles who had a, who was a starter last year and had a small role in the Georgia game the year before that. And then Carson Hinsman was the starting center this past year. And maybe he’s in line to be the starting right guard this year. So those are the only two guys who are on pace for a thousand snaps. But none of these guys right now are like certified starters.

going into year three. Now, Sonny -style CJ Hicks, some combination that is, because one of those two guys is gonna be the starting Will linebacker next to Cody Simon, so sure. Devon Brown is locked into a battle with Will Howard to be the starting quarterback. As I mentioned, Carson Hinsman is in a battle with Luke Montgomery, Tegra Shibola to be some.

Stephen Means (53:19.196)

correlation of what the starting right side of the offensive line is gonna be. But then you’ve got like Kaden Curry and Kenyatta Jackson who are gonna play this year, but they’re stuck. But they’re not gonna be starters because JT Tui Maloao and Jack Sawyer are back. Kade Powers is trying to push for time as well. But, and then Hiro Kanu is in a rotation. So it’s not, but he’s not a starter. The starters there are kind of locked in. But they’re in year three and we’re talking about a situation, Nathan, where not a lot of these guys are in positions to be starters.

What do we think of the 2022 recruiting class as it enters its third year in the program?

Nathan Baird (53:56.014)

So I think by 2022, we were already starting to have some conversations about the concept of. Pull the receivers out and then grade the class. And that’s completely fair because receivers is such a huge part of what Ohio State wants to do. But this is the poster child for where a receiving group sort of props up a class. In the rankings a little bit like this is the fourth ranked class in the country.

But you had four top 150 receivers. Kojo Antwi was just outside the top 150. But we’ll call him one top 150. Four top 150 consensus receivers. Kayla Brown, gone. Keon Gray’s just left. Kayla Burton, gone. Burton and Brown were both gone pretty fast. And now Kojo Antwi’s still around, but I don’t know what his path to the field is in a starting in the offense kind of way. And that really...

takes some of the punch out of, you know, you had seven top 100 players plus Gabe Powers was one on one again in the consensus rankings. And two of those guys were receivers who never played for you really. And then a third, there was 132 and a third and a fourth is 151 like that. So that’s why this class as we sit here two years later seems underwhelming from what we thought on national signing day.

I kind of am remembering now, I think when we go back to National Signing Day and we did a breakdown of this class, I think we were a little bit critical of this class, if I remember right. People can go back and find that pod, I suppose, although we’ve done trillions of them since then, it seems like. So good luck spending your summer cycling back through that. But I kind of remember us having a conversation where we were all a little bit like, yeah, I mean, I know it’s fourth, but like,

How about this and how about this? And that was a part of it. And then it was the offensive line side of things. It was like, well, okay, but what is this on the offensive line? We already knew there were offensive line issues coming. They were staring Ohio State in the face by then. Was this class going to fix them? And I would say this class has not fixed them. However, I do think there’s also the potential for some of these off, for the offensive line to still.

Nathan Baird (56:19.214)

come up big because the reason that it hasn’t fixed it yet is because we’ve asked people who were too young to be too good immediately like the Carson Hensmans of the world or you know why hasn’t Tegra Shabolo won a job yet and now he’s in his third year he should be more in that position and so is Hensman but like last year you’re asking Hensman to come in and be the starting center his second year position he had not played very much before and I think the results were kind of predictable and

That’s not, I don’t put that on the players in this class. And I don’t even really put that on the, I guess you put that more on the coaches, that what this class needed was more of a sure thing on the offensive line and it couldn’t find it. And we’re still, you’re still feeling that at Ohio State right now, that there have been, this was one of the classes that needed something big in offensive line recruiting and didn’t get there.

And now they’re still hoping that somebody takes a really big jump in development this summer. And it could be Hensman. It could be that last year he just wasn’t ready. And then now putting him in guard, maybe that’s more natural for him. And maybe he has a big summer and says, yeah, all that experience I got last year, plus being at a position that fits me better, we’re gonna be all right. Maybe that happens, but it’s still a big question mark as you’re sitting here a few months from the start of a season that could be a historic.

Stephen Means (57:48.572)

Offensive line with him has been a miss so far, but also offensive lines a developmental position. So we’ll see

Nathan Baird (57:54.19)

Yeah, I wouldn’t call it a miss. I wouldn’t really call it a miss. The miss was that, again, they didn’t get what we thought they needed. It was like a five -star tackle in that class. That was the miss. The guys that they got, I wouldn’t call misses yet.

Stephen Means (58:07.612)

No, no, when I say missed, like literally you missed on not getting a guy. I think all the other spots, and I was kind of alluding to this earlier, is why, and you’ve been saying this, how does this class look in comparison to the classes around it? Because I think it’s a good class after you just had a class where you’ve got multiple players in it, like 10 deep, who are gonna play starting roles for you for two, three years.

Right, that’s what you had here. You didn’t need another 2021 class where you’ve got like, and that’d be nice, right? I mean, there’s SEC schools who do it all the time, but it was a good pairing class because it’s like, JT and Jack are your starters. Well, behind them are Kenyatta Jackson and Kaden Curry. Now that’s an also understanding that maybe they weren’t expecting JT and Jack to be around by the year three, but they are. And now look how sure.

your defensive end group is in this situation. You can say the same thing about wide receiver where that’s a lower rated wide receiver group as you’re talking about. This is the first wide receiver group that doesn’t have a five star recruit. And it’s the first group where it’s like guy, it’s the first Ryan Day group, Brian Heartline group where everybody’s not a top 100 recruit. But when you’ve just had back to back years of we have the number one wide receiver in the country plus two or three other five stars, can you expect to do that every single year?

even the quarterback situation, how much better does this situation look when yours doesn’t reclassify and he’s just your 2022 quarterback? That’s part of the situation here. I mean, the fact that you went and found Devin Brown late, very late, kudos to them. And the fact that he stuck around kudos to him. But I think this was a good pairing class to make sure you didn’t.

Nathan Baird (59:35.582)

yeah, yeah.

Stephen Means (59:49.084)

wind up with what you had in 2017, 2018 class where you had two back to back, highly rated, crazy good classes, but one class was kind of in front of the other, which was hiding the fact that maybe that 2018 class wasn’t as good as it was kind of presented to be on signing day. Because now what this class has given you is a especially defensively, a really quality too deep on the defensive line, maybe a little bit of linebacker as guys come around and Jair Brown, listen,

He started a game for you because you had injuries and he played pretty well for you. So I said this was an okay class, but I think it was always destined to just be an okay class and that’s fine. So for me, Nathan, it lived up to the billing so far. Now there’s still room.

for some of these guys to really pop. CJ and Sonny can really pop. What if Devin Brown wins the job this year and he really pops? Kenyatta Jackson maybe getting more opportunity. Kaden Curry getting more opportunity. To your point with Carson Hinsman and Tegwa Shibola, maybe they really pop. But you had pretty quality 2020, really, really quality, as close to elite as you could possibly get without being elite in 21. And now you got OK. And that’s fine when you’re putting together a roster.

Nathan Baird (01:01:07.054)

The other thing that’s going to maybe change how we look at this though is like CJ Hicks has been for a five star has been kind of outside out of mind for two years. Now, if he steps up and has like a five star linebacker third year kind of season now it’s like, okay. Well, because that changes the math, but right now we’ve seen so little that it’s hard to really project that even after what we saw this spring and how much he appeared to be in kind of a forward position for this defense. Still kind of hard to.

Assume that that’s going to happen. What if Devon Brown just wins the starting quarterback job and takes Ohio State to a national championship? You’re gonna look back at this class and say Man like they know how lucky were they that they got Devon Brown when they did and then he went out and did that again I wouldn’t call it necessary far -fetched to think of it at this point, but certainly not something we can bank on at this point as we were analyzing this team and You know Sonny Styles we talked about how you?

Quinn Ewers not being in this class changes it. Well, Sonny Stiles wasn’t supposed to be in this class either. So that changes it too a little bit that he reclassifies early. It would look even weaker right now if Sonny Stiles hadn’t come a year early, which wasn’t the original plan. It was a plan that was then presented to Ohio State that they went along with. So yeah, it’s a class that yes, we had a lot of questions about it at the time. You also though have...

To me, I guess I see what you’re saying about how it has only kind of lived up to or lived down, however you want to say it, to what we thought on signing day. But to me, my assumption always is, I don’t know what I don’t know. There’s gonna be some things in this class, some guys that I haven’t evaluated correctly, or I don’t see what Ohio State sees in them, and they are going to be the answers. And I don’t think that that has really happened. And...

Again, yes, you’re right. Some guys were blocked and some guys are still blocked. Jackson and Caden Curry are more or less still blocked. Gabe Powers, top 100 prospect, is blocked. And it’s hard to project big roles for them just simply because of the people in front of them. So this is a class that it’s still, you know, for a class that’s going into its third year, we should probably be talking about it with more like absoluteness.

Nathan Baird (01:03:32.142)

about like this is we’ve we have seen now what this class is and it’s still incomplete. It’s you can’t really give it a full grade at this point because there’s still just so many guys in this class who I would argue have not had the chance to really show what they are yet. The counter argument is like if you’re a five star CJ Hicks you should just by their second year you should be just winning that job.

also a fair thing to potentially argue. And we’ll know by the end of this year, maybe which of those arguments made more sense.

Stephen Means (01:04:12.924)

I think CJ Hicks is in a similar situation that the linebacker class in 2018 was kind of in where it’s like 2021 rolled around and we’re going to find out did they not play because the guys in front of them Baron Browning, Pete Warner and Tough Borland and Malik Harrison were just that good or was there something going on and they were just not pushing their way onto the field and we found out it was the latter in 2021 with that linebacker group.

There’s good reason to believe it’s going to be more of the former with CJ Hicks, but listen, you got to wait and find out. We’re going to take our last break here and then we’re going to wrap up with kind of a projection conversation about the other two classes. Can we come back here on Pukai Talk?

So the 2023 class for Ohio State also ranked fourth. It had 21 players in its class. It had one five -star recruit in it, and that was Brandon Ennis from out of Florida, the number 35 player, the number five wide receiver. That was actually the first time since Nick Bosa’s class in 2026 that Ohio State had only, excuse me, 2016, that Ohio State had only had one five -star recruit.

in a class where I day actually is kind of they’ve been great with the five stars three in 2027 and 21 to a 22 one in 23, four and 24 and they’ve got three so far and 25 that’s 25 stars this 25 stars without including the 2019 class as well in that conversation but you’ve also got guys like Jermaine Matthews who kind of like Kenyatta Jackson maybe that guy would be ready to start for you but Denzel Burke and Davis and egg but no center still here you’ve already lost Noah Rogers to the transfer portal but carnal tape looks like he’s gonna

to start this year. Jason Moore is going to play for you this year. Luke Montgomery is in a battle to be the right guard for you this year. Jelani Thurman I think is a question mark on whether or not he plays this year. He looks the part but is he developing at the level you expect him to. Malik Hartford we’ve heard good things about. We’ve heard good things about R. Val Rees as well. And it seems like Kaden McDonald is going to be in a rotation for you. The only other guys you’ve lost.

Stephen Means (01:06:11.068)

I don’t know how to classify Nigel Gover. Like, is he a transfer or is he a signee? Just given the fact that how that played out and then you’ve also lost Cedric Hawkins who went home as well. Rob Bryson Rogers has sold some good things for you. It’s too early to have a. A legit conversation about how good this recruiting class is, right? At least with 2022.

When you say they’re three years in and you still don’t know, that’s an evaluation when you’re three years in. In year two, when some of these guys just went through their first spring, that’s not an evaluation for 2023. But do you like where things are headed, Nathan, with this 2023 class in terms of some of the highly rated guys who look like they’re going to play in year two and then maybe some of the more promising lower rated guys who have at least flashed that they have the potential to one day be starters?

Nathan Baird (01:07:01.486)

So this was a class I was talking about with sort of the opposite of the 2021 class in some ways that was just so top heavy. You just got so many top 100 guys that you didn’t really care what was going on at some of these lower range, the lower numbers. And I hate to just reduce guys to numbers, but it is what it is. This is the opposite. Like they have very few, one five -star, like that’s an anomaly for Ohio State that you only got one guy who.

rank that high. Still seven top 100, so they still had, you know, a preponderance of guys there, but it’s the guys right now that you look at as maybe being really critical to this class. And it’s why I would say that I almost would tip towards calling this successful only two years in, because we think NS is going to very potentially have a big part in the offense. We don’t know how it’ll bounce back from that entry, but it could be a big part of this offense this year. So your five star might be ready to be a guy in year two. And then,

But then when you get down below that top, that 250 range, Caden McDonald, 261, Larry Johnson loves him. And we saw some good things from last year as a true freshman. Jaden Bonsu had a really, really good spring at a position where they needed someone to step up and give them some confidence in their depth. He looks like he could be by next year, a guy. And we’ve been led astray on that before at safety, but it’s potential that it could happen. Even Bryson Rogers, a guy who,

tried to leave and then decided to come back. And I thought had like one of the more underrated Springs that we assumed so much of all these other receivers. And he probably came the closest of like stepping up even over some of the guys that are older than him and saying like, no, like you’ve got to play me. Like, look at what I can do. And I think that was an important thing for them to see, even if he doesn’t break through this year, that’s there’s going to be opportunity to get on the field next year with some guys that cycle through. And then even a guy like Austin Searivell,

When you start talking about like second year offensive linemen who are almost like inked into the depth chart, the two deep, like even as just a backup in that second year, it’s, I think, refreshing for the team. Because I think then you look at right now at Austin Sirvel and say, okay, they trust him like almost enough to play him in a real game if they had to probably. And then what is he by year three?

Nathan Baird (01:09:26.446)

after he’s had like a year of being like a true backup, you’re gonna need a new left guard next year. You may need a new right guard next year, depending on who wins that job and who wins other jobs this year. You’re gonna have a gap at center, which you don’t know exactly who’s gonna fill that. So you’ve even got Josh Padilla in this class too. Like guys who, right now the second year offensive lineman in that developmental range, there’s reason for some optimism. Maybe they’re only getting there because of,

The options that are around them and that’s why we’re hearing them mentioned But I still think it’s there’s there’s some positives to be taken there that or at least reason for cautious optimism that a year from now We’re looking at it and we’re like, like that class some of those guys are ranked in like the two three hundreds They actually have overachieved a little bit. So I’m not assuming that that’s gonna happen but there’s there’s reason to have some confidence that

There’s going to be enough overachievement from that 250 and on range and a number of positions that this class could actually exceed maybe what we thought that it was going to be on signing day.

Stephen Means (01:10:33.724)

I think Josh and Carson are getting the benefit that Excuse not Josh and Austin are getting the benefit a second year offensive lineman that Carson Hensman didn’t get because Luke Lippert left their Luke whiplers haven’t left yet and that’s Donovan Jackson and then you bring in Seth McLaughlin as well, so they’re in a situation where

to your point, what if Carson Hinsman is just better because it’s year three and he was just thrown out there a year too early? We could be talking about Josh Padilla and Austin Sear about the same way a year from now where it’s like, man, they’ve been progressing the right way. We just didn’t have to watch their progression in real time because the guy who should be starting decided to go pro in these situations. So I agree with that. This is almost the opposite of 21 where it’s like, hey, in 21, we got all these highly rated guys and they’re ready to go.

This year, some lower rated guys who also, they’re not ready to go right now, but just as this 21 class and these 22 classes walking out the door, we feel pretty confident about where things are at. So let’s end with this. Because 24 just got here, and the only one you can have any real evaluation about right now is Jeremiah Smith. He looks like he’s a hit. Everybody else, it’s like, I don’t know, man. Let’s check in on them halfway through the year once they’ve played some football. And then 25, they’re still high schoolers.

The reason this exercise I think was interesting and important was it’s coming on the heels of in 2017, they had this highly rated recruiting class, right? There was a number two class in the country at five five stars and 11 top 100 recruits. And it felt like all of that hit. And then by year three, when they’re the nucleus of a roster, they had like one of the best teams in college football where it took.

The number one pick in the NFL draft in Trevor Lawrence, or had they beaten him, went on and played a all -time great team in LSU to maybe keep them from winning a national title in 2019. And that was on the back of that 17 class that was rated so high and it hit. And then the very next year they do the same thing and the polar opposite happens. It’s like.

Stephen Means (01:12:38.876)

I don’t know if the miss gets any larger than what you had in that year, where you only produced one first round draft pick, and it wasn’t a guy who was the third lowest rate guy in that class. I don’t think any of these classes since, even if you wanna include 19, have been so drastic, the way that those two classes were, the way that the Urban Meyer era ended, but I do think they fall on a scale. Overall,

arching, we’re talking about five classes for Ryan Day, 2020 through 2023, and really 2020 to 2022 if we’re going to really evaluate them.

If the 17 and 18 classes are the extreme of pretty good class on signing day, but it does or doesn’t hit, where do you think the Ryan Day era of talent acquisition and development and sending it off to the NFL draft is falling on that scale? Is it leaning more towards 17 or leaning more towards 18? And what does that tell us about where Ryan Day’s program is five years into it?

Nathan Baird (01:13:40.078)

You know, I mean, they’re producing enough like first round, second round talent. especially at the positions, I think that maybe the key is it’s just been a little bit too one dimensional conversation we’ve already had on the pod, but like, you know, they’ve had no trouble producing quarterbacks and receivers for sure. And even, you know, the Paris Johnsons of the world.

and getting those guys in and helping them maximize what they were supposed to be in and be high first round NFL draft picks. But the defense is where it’s lacked. And is that a direct reflection on what Ryan Day does as a recruiter? No. But is it a reflection on the buttons he’s pushed and the things he’s put in place, the infrastructure he set up and the coaches he’s hired and the job that they’ve done? Yeah, I think that that is a fair thing to say.

So it’s only really gotten halfway there. I think the things that have, again, this is a program that you judge by a national championship standard and the places where they’ve fallen short have in some cases been things that you could project out a couple of years as being a problem and they couldn’t fix them fast enough. Maybe easier said than done, but they couldn’t fix office of line fast enough. They couldn’t fix a secondary fast enough when they could have seen on the horizon based on the recruiting that came.

before Ryan Day took over as head coach in some cases, that this was going to be a problem. So I think it’s, you can’t really say that there, that it’s been, that you can’t be consistently ranked in the top five every year and say there’s a problem with your recruiting. You can’t be consistently putting guys in the first 10 picks of the NFL draft at marquee positions and saying there’s a problem with your recruiting. But I think you can say that it has lacked in important ways.

And I think this 2024 class is where you do start to see some important corrections, which is things like getting, you know, Aaron Scott and Bryce West, who both look like you could have maybe landed five star guys at four star prices, for lack of a better term. You’ve already seen a guy like Jalen McLean. Looks like that was probably a good win for them in the mid 300s. Who could?

Nathan Baird (01:16:04.238)

by his second year maybe be in the mix to be a bigger part of this defense. It’s just going to be another class though with a big burden on developmental offensive line. They’re asking a lot of some pretty low ranked offensive linemen from this class unless they follow up this coming year with a big acquisition of major offensive line talent. And again, recent history would suggest,

That plan doesn’t work that well. We’ve seen it play out. And I think that if I was an Ohio State fan, that would be a frustrating thing for me right now to be looking at this. And I know that it’s frustrating for them because they text it all the time and tell us that they’re sick of the way the office of lying recruiting is gone. And there are some things out there in play, obviously, for this 2025 class that would help change that narrative. But they’re by no means slam dunks. And they kind of need a.

big hit on the offensive line and they I don’t know that they were going to get it out of 2024 and they they need some real progress there. They need to have a year where the way that we look at these what would what would change this program and I kind of don’t understand why it can’t happen and I don’t know if it’s something that we could like analyze and really study and come up with why. Like why this class can’t.

Why is there never like, this class had three top 100 offensive linemen? Like, is that an impossible thing? I know maybe there just aren’t that many in a given year in the top 100 or whatever. I’m just picking numbers out of my, out of the air. But like they do it at receiver all the time. They can get two top five defensive ends. They can get three or four top 100 or top 125 defensive backs in the same class. They can’t get a tackle and there are two tackles in an interior guy or a tackle in two interior guys.

that are all among the top ranked players in the country, the top 100 or so in the same class. Like, it just seems like that happens so infrequently here. And Ohio State is constantly having, and I know it’s tougher. You got to find five starters there. There’s no other position that asks that. It is tougher. But that’s where I think that Ohio State, as you get, as you look over this, it’s one of the constant lacking.

Nathan Baird (01:18:27.726)

Factors in in in a lot of these classes that maybe keeps us from saying like yeah that class really got it done Because they keep either They haven’t really missed on high ranked guys like the guys that they got have turned out to be Good the higher ranked guys your Paris Johnsons and Luke Montgomery I think is still on a fine trajectory in his second year Even if he didn’t win a job outright this spring like there’s there’s reasons to think that the guys that they’ve gotten at the top But they just aren’t getting enough of those guys

And until they start to, I think that we’re always gonna kind of look at some of these classes sideways, because almost every other position is getting it done on a pretty regular basis. Some of them at a rate among the best in the country. And I still don’t understand why an offense this powerful, with this much talent across the board, with these coaches, and with this exposure, like every, the brand, everything, like it checks off like almost everything.

Except I guess if you’re a guy who thinks he’s going to go out and be just so run oriented that this isn’t the offense for you, I suppose. But I don’t know how that projects for your NFL future. I think this is an offense that asks for the balance from its offensive line that would be great for developing NFL offensive linemen. So that’s what’s still missing. And it’s what they sort of need to hurry up and do in one of these classes. Because I think it’s a great offense.

I think once they do that, you might only have to do it once. I was talking before about kind of the nucleus thing. If you do that once, and like two of those guys, even if only two of those three top 100 guys hit quickly, now you’ve really accelerated things and put yourself in a position where you can better maximize the success you’re having in all those other positions.

Stephen Means (01:20:19.068)

Assuming this 25 class holds and TJ offered a number 23 number 63 player the number seven linebacker in the country does actually sign on Sunday, I think offensive line window being the only class Six cycles in that Ohio said has not signed a top 100 recruit that wasn’t from its backyard. I think that might be wrong and to you

Nathan Baird (01:20:39.118)

Yeah, yeah. That’s the other thing. Like you’re definitely not gonna find three top 100 offensive line prospects just in Ohio in a given year, right? Like most likely. Like that’s just, that’s asking a lot. And it’s asking a lot to find them anywhere, but they do it again with such regularity everywhere else. I don’t know why offensive line is such a hard way. There seems to be a ceiling there on any given class.

Stephen Means (01:20:48.444)

It’s... yeah.

Stephen Means (01:21:05.724)

Yeah, that’s part of it here. It’s like the one thing that’s keeping you from just being like, these are just great, great classes, is the fact that there’s one position where it feels like they can’t quite figure it out yet. Safety a little bit too, but that’s got a different consequence than offensive line is at. And we saw that play out in the Michigan game, how offensive line play can sometimes hold you back. So, okay, I think the conclusion we’ve come to here is.

They’re doing a pretty good job recruiting. It’s not perfect. There’s clearly holes. We can poke in some stuff. But they’re doing a great job recruiting. And more importantly than the recruiting aspect, they’re doing a pretty quality job developing these classes. And at bare minimum, most of these classes, it feels like they’re living up to the expectation of them. The expectation of these classes are all different. Some of them have seven five stars in them and 14 top 100 recruits. And so you’re expecting them to be.

probably the nucleus of multiple national championship level teams. And that 21 class has been that they’re actually about to be the nucleus of a third straight team that’s competing for a national championship. Some other classes may be a little bit more.

developmental like the 2022 and now they’re entering year three and we’re still wondering, hey, what’s going on with this guy? What’s going on with that guy? I just thought this was a good marker to do that. We’re five years into the Ryan Day experience as its head coach. He’s had five recruiting cycles with his six recruiting cycle already underway, the number two class in the country. Get the text 614 -350 -3315. Stuff is happening. Andrew’s going to be texting a lot of that stuff out as guys are visiting over the next couple of months as we’re out of those camps as well. Two week free trial, 399 after that, 614 -350.

I’m Stephen Means and that was Buckeye Talk.

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